What's up fellas.
James here back with my weekly free bet series, where I give you a free betting tip on the upcoming UFC card.
This week we have Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis in a fight which will tell us a lot about the eventual title challenger to the Stipe/Ngannou winner.
I could write a whole article on my thoughts of the top of the Heavyweight division but you have come here for MMA betting tips so I won't waste your time, let's get straight into it.
The bet I'm going to be giving out today is a totals bet on the fight between Su Mudaerji and Malcolm Gordon.
Su Mudaerji is a very fun striker who comes out always hunting for a finish, one thing that stood out on tape with this guy was his pinpoint accuracy, he doesn't take long to find his range and I don't think it will take him very long in this fight either.
He is coming into this with a 12-4 record which all his fights apart from one ending inside the distance. The only fight that went to the scorecards was his last fight against Andre Soukhamthath, he busted up Andre on the fight but couldn't get him out of there, but I don't hold it against him.
Soukhamthath is as tough as they come and when you go over all of his 10 losses, both amateur and pro, you will see that he has never been stopped. He hasn't been fighting bums either, he has losses over Rob Font, Sean O'Malley, Montel Jackson, Brian Kelleher, and he has made it to the scorecards with all of those guys. So it's no wonder Mudaerji couldn't get him out of there. All of Mudaerji's other wins have come inside the distance.
One aspect of his game that is lacking is the wrestling and grappling department, he only has 4 losses on his record, and they have all came by way of submission, so it's easy to see where his weaknesses lie. One thing I must say about Mudaerji though is that I have been seeing constant improvements in the grappling realm over his last few fights, and it's evident that he has been working on that aspect of his game not only by watching film, but also if you just check his Instagram. He has been training at the number one place you want to be if you have weaknesses in your MMA wrestling/Grappling - Dagestan.
As I said, I am already seeing the improvements Mudaerji is making, and at such a young age of 24 years old, I wouldn't be surprised if we see another evolution come fight night when he takes on Malcolm Gordon
Malcolm Gordon comes into this contest with the same pro record as Mudaerji, 12-4. But their similarities don't stretch much farther than that. Although Gordon is a striker by trade, he doesn't look like he is very comfortable with getting it when I am watching film on him, and that's not the greatest feature to have as an MMA fighter.
I will say though, that another similarity they do share is that Gordon is a very fun fighter to watch, and this is evident by his record. Just like Mudaerji, in all of his 4 losses, he has been finished in all four. If Gordon doesn't get you out of there and is not just piecing you up to a comfortable decision win, you probably get him out there at some point in the contest.
Gordon has been stopped in all of his losses and Mudaerji has been stopped in all of his, you may be seeing where I am going with this now?
Mudaerji is a -350 favourite and although I think he gets the stoppage I don't see any value on the current line just because of the fact that all Mudaerji's losses have come via way of submission, and if I have something good to say about Gordon would be that he is a very opportunistic submission grappler and half of his wins have come via way of submission.
So, the moment you have all been waiting for. The free UFC betting tip:
Su Mudaerji vs. Malcolm Gordon to go UNDER 2.5 rounds @ -180
I see value on the -180 line because the implied probability of that line is around 65% but I see this fight ending before 2.5 rounds around 70-75% of the time so in my opinion, we have around a 5-10% edge on the bookies and at the end of the day, if you put all the value betting aside, I just believe this fight ends in the first or second rounds.
So lock the bet in before it gets bet up to an even higher line, and hopefully I can help you make some cash.
Of course, this is only one tip, I make up to as much as 10 bets on each UFC card. If you want to become a member and trial my service out, visit my membership page, you can check out my results here too if you wish.
Let's get this money,
James