Some Advice on MMA Picks:
A lot of people I come across in the gambling sphere ask me about upcoming fight cards, as a professional gambler they want my opinions on upcoming fight cards and almost always ask me for my MMA picks.
There is a big misconception within the gambling circles because knowing my “picks” will likely not make you any money.
My “picks” and my bets are two completely different things, and yours should be too if you want to make money long-term from gambling.
Let me introduce you to a concept called “value”, listen up here because this is the only true way you will make money from betting in any sport, not just MMA.
Because of the volatility and randomness of gambling results in general, we do not want to bet on whom we are picking to win the fight WITHOUT firstly taking the betting odds into account.
You should only bet where you feel you have value.
If you believe there is a better chance of an event (a fighter/team winning for example) occurring than what the bookmakers' odds say, then you have a “value bet”.
There will be many cases where I will be picking a fighter to win, but I will still bet on his or her opponent because I feel there is value.
A good example of this was the past Saturday, the 25th of June 2022 when I made bets on Mateusz Gamrot at +225 and James Gonzales at +500. Both were huge underdogs and I was actually “picking” both to lose, but I bet on them anyway because I thought they had a greater chance than the chances the books indicated with their listed odds. (+500 correlates to a 16.67% chance and +225 correlates to a 30.77% chance).
That is why, my MMA picks do not really matter, as it is my MMA bets that make me all the money in the long run.