Starting with a new series, I'm going to be recapping the best bets from UFC 255.
If you didn't already know, every week I give out the best bet(s) (the bet I believe has the most value) for the upcoming weekend's round of fights on my YouTube channel in video form as well as on my website in article/blog form.
The following week I then recap what I believe the best bet turned out to be, and also take a look at the bet I gave out the week prior, in hindsight.
So, last week I gave out a free "best bet" which, as I mentioned, would not be the bet I believe had the best chance of winning, but the bet which I believe to hold the most value. If you have been following me long enough, you will now understand that sports betting is as much about consistently finding value on lines as it is about picking winners, bankroll management, or any of the other must-have skills needed to be successful with this long term.
The bet I gave out last week was Louis Cosce to win in round one at odds of +187 (implied probability of around 34%). The fight went much how I thought it would, with Louis coming out like a freight train and putting it on his opponent Sasha Palatnikov early, he dropped Palatnikov in the first minute or two of the fight and proceeded to land huge ground and pound shots, I thought the fight was over at this point and expected our +187 ticket to cash
His opponent managed to survive and get back to his feet, only to have Cosce knock him down for a second time and take his back, he then landed brutal ground and pound to the side of his opponents head from back mount and after many unanswered shots Joe Rogan declared that the fight was over, I too thought the fight was over but the referee Chris Tognoni (who is known for letting fights go on too long) obviously did not. Cosce seemed to tire with the beating he was putting on his opponent and Palatnikov managed to survive again, after this second survival from his opponent Cosce looked in real trouble, he was very tired and confused as to how his opponent was still in front of him.
The fight continued on and in the third round Cosce virtually stopped fighting due to fatigue and Palatnikov secured a TKO victory. Looking back at the bet I am happy enough with it and if they were to fight again I would play the same bet at the same odds. As mentioned previously sports betting is a long-term game in which you have to consistently find value on the lines, if you do that you will end up profiting. The +187 ticket we got was good value in my opinion, as if the fight had happened on another day with another referee, the fight would have been stopped.
+187 implies a probability of around 34%, but I believe that at least half the time those guys fight Cosce stops him in round 1. As I said, he virtually did that if another referee was there, and that was the only time they have fought. The bet actually closed at +100 so we beat the line by nearly a dollar which I can only be happy with.
Now on to the best bets of the card.
The first bet I will mention is a bet I placed myself and thus tipped to members of Lucrative MMA Betting, who also cashed this ticket at +350 (implied probability of around 22%), it was Tim Means to win via decision. I believe this bet had huge value and I don't see how the bookmakers lined this at only having a 22% chance of happening.
In my weekly fight breakdown series which I post on my website's blog and on YouTube in video form, I broke down the fight between Mike Perry and Tim Means. I mentioned that the best bet for this fight and the bet I would be making a play on was the Tim Means decision prop. I did this because I favoured this outcome to happen a lot higher than the implied 22%, I believed it was more likely to happen around 30% of the time.
As I stated on my video breakdown which you can watch here, I did think it was a highly volatile match-up because of all the variables at play, but Means' superior MMA skill coupled with Mike Perry's toughness led me to believe that we had around a 7-10% edge on the bookies here, which means I had to take a shot (pun intended).
It was a great fight and Mike Perry had his moments but Means' emerged a clear winner, he never had Mike Perry close to being finished either so I'm very happy with my read on the decision bet there. At +350 I believe this was one of the best bets of the card, especially seeing as his ML (Moneyline) closed at -110.
Another bet which turned out to be a good bet was Nicholas Dalby at +250, now full disclosure I was on his opponent Daniel Rodriguez here, and I do believe Rodriguez won the fight. Of course, you have to take into account that I am biased as I had money on it. Regardless of this, MMA betting, and sports betting, in general, is all about finding value, and D-rod as a -300 favourite was not value, whether or not he won the fight, simply because the fight was so close.
The fight really could have gone either way and if you are consistently getting +250 lines on close fights you will come out the other end a very profitable man. So congratulations to anybody on Nicholas Dalby there, I have to hold my hands up and chalk that one down to being a bad bet on my part.
The last bet I will mention was in my opinion the best bet on the card at a huge +400 price tag, and I'm happy to say me and members cashed this bet also. It was Katlyn Chookagian to win via decision. If you are a member you would have noticed how shocked I was at this line during my betting breakdown video I sent out. I believed Chookagian had around a 40% chance of winning this fight by decision, but +400 implies she has a 20% chance, thus I believed I had a 20% edge on the bookies, crazy!
The fight played out much as I envisioned with Katlyn just simply doing more on the feet and defending any grappling exchanges to win a pretty clear decision. In hindsight it seemed that Chookagian probably had an even higher chance of winning this fight by decision than 40%, I would now say it's probably closer to 55%, so it seems we had about a 35% edge on the bookies, though we will never truly know as they have only fought the one time.
An edge like that doesn't happen very often, I mean, bookmakers are generally not stupid people, it's their job to set lines after all, but I do believe that was a stupid line, possibly one of the worst lines of the year, and so we took advantage. The only gripe I have is not putting more money on it, but hindsight is always 20/20.
So there we have it, the best bets for the UFC 255 card.
Like every week, my "best bet" blog post and video will be up on my website and YouTube channel in the next few days, as will my upcoming fight breakdown and prediction video and blog post, so stay tuned for some free knowledge and some MMA betting tips.